UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 · scheduled
Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna
Aleksandre Topuria 34%66% Santiago Luna
Probability of winning, given a decisive result (draws / no contests excluded)
Model logistic-regression · generated 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · data completeness 90%
⚠ Limited evidence: at least one fighter has fewer than 3 prior UFC bouts in the data, so this forecast is less reliable.
Main statistical drivers (associations, not causes)
- age favours Santiago Luna
- reach favours Santiago Luna
- Elo rating gap favours Aleksandre Topuria
Model accuracy is measured on Model Lab. It is currently behind the bookmaker consensus, so a gap between the two is more likely the model’s than an opportunity.
Odds Intelligence
Research benchmark only. Bookmaker prices never feed the prediction model.
Bookmaker odds currently unavailable.
Head to head
| Measure | Aleksandre Topuria | Santiago Luna |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record since 2013 | 2-0-0 | 2-1-0 |
| Height (cm) | 170.18 | 175.26 |
| Reach (cm) | 172.72 | 187.96 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
“—” means the source did not supply the value. It is not zero.
Forecast revisions
- first · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression
- latest · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression