UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · 7 Nov 2026, 22:00 · scheduled
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid
Probability of winning, given a decisive result (draws / no contests excluded)
Model logistic-regression · generated 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · data completeness 80%
⚠ Limited evidence: at least one fighter has fewer than 3 prior UFC bouts in the data, so this forecast is less reliable.
- Elo rating gap favours Keiichiro Nakamura
- career win rate favours Ollie Schmid
- durability favours Keiichiro Nakamura
Model accuracy is measured on Model Lab. It is currently behind the bookmaker consensus, so a gap between the two is more likely the model’s than an opportunity.
Odds Intelligence
Research benchmark only. Bookmaker prices never feed the prediction model.
Bookmakers
| Bookmaker ↑ | Keiichiro Nakamura | Ollie Schmid | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetAnything | 1.29 | 3.60 | 2 h ago |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.31 | 3.65 | 2 h ago |
| Betsson | 1.27 | 3.65 | 2 h ago |
| Coolbet | 1.28 | 3.85 | 2 h ago |
| Grosvenor | 1.19 | 3.25 | 2 h ago |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.28 | 3.70 | 2 h ago |
| Nordic Bet | 1.28 | 3.70 | 2 h ago |
| Pinnacle | 1.27 | 4.00 | 2 h ago |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.28 | 3.35 | 2 h ago |
| Virgin Bet | 1.28 | 3.70 | 2 h ago |
Market movement
Not enough history in this range (1 point). History is collected from now on; none is back-filled.
Shows Keiichiro Nakamura’s consensus probability. First observed price is not the bookmaker’s opening price, and the last captured price is not the official closing price.
Head to head
| Measure | Keiichiro Nakamura | Ollie Schmid |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record since 2013 | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 |
| Height (cm) | 177.8 | 182.88 |
| Reach (cm) | 177.8 | 180.34 |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
“—” means the source did not supply the value. It is not zero.
Forecast revisions
- first · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression
- latest · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression