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UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 18 Mar 2023, 00:00 · completed

Lerone Murphy vs Gabriel Santos

No forecast available for this bout yet.

No validated model has produced a forecast. See Model Lab.

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11 UFC bouts · last fought 21 Mar 2026

Lerone Murphy

“The Miracle”
UFC rec9-1-1
Elo1780
Strike acc51%
Strike def60%
TD defence44%
KO · SUB3 · 0
Age31
Reach185 cm
Orthodox
Last 5WinWinWinWinLoss
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4 UFC bouts · last fought 8 Feb 2025

Gabriel Santos

“Mosquitinho”
UFC rec2-2-0
Elo1518
Strike acc61%
Strike def45%
TD defence88%
KO · SUB0 · 1
Age26
Reach178 cm
Orthodox
Last 4LossLossWinWin

Head to head

9-1-1
UFC record (2013 on)
2-2-0
Unavailable
Pro record (ESPN)
Unavailable
3
Wins by KO/TKO
0
0
Wins by submission
1
1780
Elo rating
1518
51%
Striking accuracy
61%
60%
Striking defence
45%
4.34
Landed per min
4.35
2.65
Absorbed per min
4.31
44%
Takedown defence
88%
1.20
Takedowns per 15
3.80
Unavailable
Country
Unavailable
31
Age
26
185 cm
Reach
178 cm
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

Same sources and limits as each card’s full stats: UFC fights since 2013, strike rates from the bouts that carry strike data. Bars show each fighter’s share of the pair’s combined value; a longer bar is not always better (absorbed strikes, for example).

Odds Intelligence

Research benchmark only. Bookmaker prices never feed the prediction model.

Bookmaker odds currently unavailable.

Forecast revisions

None recorded.