UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · 7 Nov 2026, 22:00 · scheduled
Gabriel Lorenço vs Thomas Petersen
Gabriel Lorenço 38%62% Thomas Petersen
Probability of winning, given a decisive result (draws / no contests excluded)
Model logistic-regression · generated 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · data completeness 50%
⚠ Limited evidence: at least one fighter has fewer than 3 prior UFC bouts in the data, so this forecast is less reliable.
Main statistical drivers (associations, not causes)
- striking accuracy favours Thomas Petersen
- UFC experience favours Thomas Petersen
- takedown volume favours Thomas Petersen
Model accuracy is measured on Model Lab. It is currently behind the bookmaker consensus, so a gap between the two is more likely the model’s than an opportunity.
Odds Intelligence
Research benchmark only. Bookmaker prices never feed the prediction model.
Bookmaker odds currently unavailable.
Head to head
| Measure | Gabriel Lorenço | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record since 2013 | None in data | 3-4-0 |
| Height (cm) | — | 185.42 |
| Reach (cm) | — | 187.96 |
| Stance | — | Southpaw |
“—” means the source did not supply the value. It is not zero.
Forecast revisions
- first · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression
- latest · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression