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UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 25 Oct 2025, 01:00 · completed

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista

No forecast available for this bout yet.

No validated model has produced a forecast. See Model Lab.

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10 UFC bouts · last fought 29 Aug 2026

Umar Nurmagomedov

UFC rec8-2-0
Elo1769
Strike acc57%
Strike def61%
TD defence79%
KO · SUB1 · 2
Age29
Reach175 cm
Orthodox
Last 5WinLossWinWinLoss
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15 UFC bouts · last fought 11 Jul 2026

Mario Bautista

UFC rec12-3-0
Elo1788
Strike acc50%
Strike def54%
TD defence57%
KO · SUB1 · 4
Age32
Reach175 cm
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Last 5WinWinLossWinWin

Head to head

8-2-0
UFC record (2013 on)
12-3-0
Unavailable
Pro record (ESPN)
Unavailable
1
Wins by KO/TKO
1
2
Wins by submission
4
1769
Elo rating
1788
57%
Striking accuracy
50%
61%
Striking defence
54%
3.76
Landed per min
5.52
1.85
Absorbed per min
4.17
79%
Takedown defence
57%
3.94
Takedowns per 15
2.49
Unavailable
Country
Unavailable
29
Age
32
175 cm
Reach
175 cm
Orthodox
Stance
Switch

Same sources and limits as each card’s full stats: UFC fights since 2013, strike rates from the bouts that carry strike data. Bars show each fighter’s share of the pair’s combined value; a longer bar is not always better (absorbed strikes, for example).

Odds Intelligence

Research benchmark only. Bookmaker prices never feed the prediction model.

Bookmaker odds currently unavailable.

Forecast revisions

None recorded.