UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · 14 Nov 2026, 22:00 · scheduled
Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita
Macy Chiasson 39%61% Bia Mesquita
Probability of winning, given a decisive result (draws / no contests excluded)
Model logistic-regression · generated 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · data completeness 100%
Main statistical drivers (associations, not causes)
- striking defence favours Bia Mesquita
- Elo rating gap favours Bia Mesquita
- finishing rate favours Bia Mesquita
Model accuracy is measured on Model Lab. It is currently behind the bookmaker consensus, so a gap between the two is more likely the model’s than an opportunity.
Odds Intelligence
Research benchmark only. Bookmaker prices never feed the prediction model.
Bookmaker odds currently unavailable.
Head to head
| Measure | Macy Chiasson | Bia Mesquita |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record since 2013 | 8-6-0 | 3-0-0 |
| Height (cm) | 180.34 | 162.56 |
| Reach (cm) | 182.88 | 170.18 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
“—” means the source did not supply the value. It is not zero.
Forecast revisions
- first · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression
- latest · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression