UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 · scheduled
Jake Matthews vs Tahir Abdullayev
Jake Matthews 58%42% Tahir Abdullayev
Probability of winning, given a decisive result (draws / no contests excluded)
Model logistic-regression · generated 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · data completeness 90%
⚠ Limited evidence: at least one fighter has fewer than 3 prior UFC bouts in the data, so this forecast is less reliable.
Main statistical drivers (associations, not causes)
- Elo rating gap favours Jake Matthews
- age favours Tahir Abdullayev
- UFC experience favours Jake Matthews
Model accuracy is measured on Model Lab. It is currently behind the bookmaker consensus, so a gap between the two is more likely the model’s than an opportunity.
Odds Intelligence
Research benchmark only. Bookmaker prices never feed the prediction model.
Bookmaker odds currently unavailable.
Head to head
| Measure | Jake Matthews | Tahir Abdullayev |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record since 2013 | 16-8-0 | 1-0-0 |
| Height (cm) | 180.34 | 172.72 |
| Reach (cm) | 185.42 | 185.42 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
“—” means the source did not supply the value. It is not zero.
Forecast revisions
- first · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression
- latest · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression