UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · 7 Nov 2026, 22:00 · scheduled
Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan
Austin Bashi 60%40% Lucas Brennan
Probability of winning, given a decisive result (draws / no contests excluded)
Model logistic-regression · generated 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · data completeness 90%
⚠ Limited evidence: at least one fighter has fewer than 3 prior UFC bouts in the data, so this forecast is less reliable.
Main statistical drivers (associations, not causes)
- takedown volume favours Austin Bashi
- Elo rating gap favours Austin Bashi
- stance favours Lucas Brennan
Model accuracy is measured on Model Lab. It is currently behind the bookmaker consensus, so a gap between the two is more likely the model’s than an opportunity.
Odds Intelligence
Research benchmark only. Bookmaker prices never feed the prediction model.
Bookmaker odds currently unavailable.
Head to head
| Measure | Austin Bashi | Lucas Brennan |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record since 2013 | 1-2-0 | 0-1-0 |
| Height (cm) | 167.64 | 177.8 |
| Reach (cm) | 177.8 | 182.88 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
“—” means the source did not supply the value. It is not zero.
Forecast revisions
- first · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression
- latest · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression