UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · 7 Nov 2026, 22:00 · scheduled
Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando
Probability of winning, given a decisive result (draws / no contests excluded)
Model logistic-regression · generated 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · data completeness 90%
⚠ Limited evidence: at least one fighter has fewer than 3 prior UFC bouts in the data, so this forecast is less reliable.
- striking defence favours Lucas Fernando
- striking output favours Lucas Fernando
- age favours Lucas Fernando
Model accuracy is measured on Model Lab. It is currently behind the bookmaker consensus, so a gap between the two is more likely the model’s than an opportunity.
Odds Intelligence
Research benchmark only. Bookmaker prices never feed the prediction model.
Bookmakers
| Bookmaker ↑ | Billy Elekana | Lucas Fernando | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetAnything | 3.30 | 1.33 | 2 h ago |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.27 | 1.29 | 2 h ago |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.43 | 1.34 | 2 h ago |
| Betsson | 3.35 | 1.31 | 2 h ago |
| Betway | 3.00 | 1.40 | 2 h ago |
| Coolbet | 3.12 | 1.39 | 2 h ago |
| Grosvenor | 2.90 | 1.24 | 2 h ago |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.25 | 1.34 | 2 h ago |
| Nordic Bet | 3.40 | 1.32 | 2 h ago |
| Pinnacle | 3.53 | 1.32 | 2 h ago |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.20 | 1.30 | 2 h ago |
| Virgin Bet | 3.25 | 1.34 | 2 h ago |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.00 | 1.28 | 2 h ago |
Market movement
Not enough history in this range (1 point). History is collected from now on; none is back-filled.
Shows Billy Elekana’s consensus probability. First observed price is not the bookmaker’s opening price, and the last captured price is not the official closing price.
Head to head
| Measure | Billy Elekana | Lucas Fernando |
|---|---|---|
| UFC record since 2013 | 3-1-0 | 1-0-0 |
| Height (cm) | 190.5 | 190.5 |
| Reach (cm) | 195.58 | 203.2 |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
“—” means the source did not supply the value. It is not zero.
Forecast revisions
- first · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression
- latest · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression