red corner
CB
Illustrated avatar
9 UFC bouts · last fought 7 Mar 2026
Caio Borralho
“The Natural”
UFC rec8-1-0
Elo1766
Strike acc55%
Strike def60%
TD defence74%
KO · SUB1 · 1
Age33
Reach191 cm
Southpaw
Last 5WinWinWinLossWin
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · 14 Nov 2026, 22:00 · scheduled
Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui
Caio Borralho 44%56% Yousri Belgaroui
Probability of winning, given a decisive result (draws / no contests excluded)
Model logistic-regression · generated 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · data completeness 100%
Main statistical drivers (associations, not causes)
- Elo rating gap favours Caio Borralho
- striking output favours Yousri Belgaroui
- finishing rate favours Yousri Belgaroui
Model accuracy is measured on Model Lab. It is currently behind the bookmaker consensus, so a gap between the two is more likely the model’s than an opportunity.
blue corner
YB
Illustrated avatar
3 UFC bouts · last fought 12 Sept 2026
Yousri Belgaroui
UFC rec3-0-0
Elo1660
Strike acc65%
Strike def70%
TD defence56%
KO · SUB3 · 0
Age34
Reach201 cm
Orthodox
Last 3WinWinWin
Head to head
8-1-0
UFC record (2013 on)
3-0-0
18-2-0
Pro record (ESPN)
11-3-0
1
Wins by KO/TKO
3
1
Wins by submission
0
1766
Elo rating
1660
55%
Striking accuracy
65%
60%
Striking defence
70%
3.30
Landed per min
8.35
2.63
Absorbed per min
1.93
74%
Takedown defence
56%
1.08
Takedowns per 15
0.52
Brazil
Country
Netherlands
33
Age
34
191 cm
Reach
201 cm
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Same sources and limits as each card’s full stats: UFC fights since 2013, strike rates from the bouts that carry strike data. Bars show each fighter’s share of the pair’s combined value; a longer bar is not always better (absorbed strikes, for example).
Odds Intelligence
Research benchmark only. Bookmaker prices never feed the prediction model.
AI prediction · logistic-regression
Caio Borralho 44% · Yousri Belgaroui 56%
Bookmaker consensus · 10 bookmakers
Caio Borralho 59% · Yousri Belgaroui 41%
Updated 3 h ago
AI versus market
−14.1 pp for Caio Borralho
Percentage points. A disagreement, not a tip.
Bookmakers
| Bookmaker ↑ | Caio Borralho | Yousri Belgaroui | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetAnything | 1.62 | 2.30 | 3 h ago |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.60 | 2.20 | 3 h ago |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.62 | 2.36 | 3 h ago |
| Betsson | 1.59 | 2.32 | 3 h ago |
| Grosvenor | 1.53 | 2.02 | 3 h ago |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.67 | 2.20 | 3 h ago |
| Nordic Bet | 1.58 | 2.30 | 3 h ago |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.42 | 1.99 | 3 h ago |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.58 | 2.25 | 3 h ago |
| Virgin Bet | 1.67 | 2.20 | 3 h ago |
Market movement
Not enough history in this range (1 point). History is collected from now on; none is back-filled.
Shows Caio Borralho’s consensus probability. First observed price is not the bookmaker’s opening price, and the last captured price is not the official closing price.
Forecast revisions
- first · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression
- latest · 2 Nov 2026, 21:51 · logistic-regression